ENERGY MATTERS
How much do oil and gas contribute to the Canadian economy?
How much do oil and gas contribute to the Canadian economy?
The benefits are wide-spread among the provinces too
Canada’s oil sands production set to double in 20 years
Most capital investment to focus on ‘in situ’ projects, says Canadian Energy Research Institute
With in situ projects leading the way, Canada’s oil sands will double their output in the next 20 years.
That’s the word from the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI), in its latest annual long-term outlook for Canadian oil sands production and supply.
The oil sands, home to the third-largest proven reserves in the world, already account for the lion’s share of Canadian and Albertan crude production—62% and 78%, respectively, in 2015.
CERI’s 20-year forecast runs three possible scenarios for production from the region:
- In its “high case” scenario, Canada’s oil sands production will grow to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2020, 5.9 million bpd in 2030, and a peak of 6.6 million bpd by 2036;
- In its “low case” scenario, that production will rise to 3.3 million bpd in 2020, 3.8 million bpd in 2030, and 4.5 million bpd in 2036;
- In its “reference case” scenario—which CERI labels a “more plausible view”—the year 2036 will see 5.5 million bpd come out of Canada’s oil sands, after reaching 3.4 million bpd in 2020 and 4.8 million bpd in 2030.
Total 2015 production from Canada’s oil sands was pegged at 2.53 million bpd. That’s a 9.6% increase over 2014 levels of 2.31 million bpd.
CERI also predicts that capital investment in “in situ” projects—primarily Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) operations, which reduce the environmental footprint of oil sands exploration—will nearly double that of mining projects.
CERI’s production forecasts are based on a number of variables, including operating and transportation costs and market price for blended bitumen and light synthetic sweet crude oil (SCO).
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