For this seismic study, Mirko Van der Baan went deep.
Deep into the earth’s core. Deep into historical data.
Van der Baan, a University of Alberta geophysicist, has spent the past two years with his team analyzing 30 to 50 years of earthquake rates from nine of North America’s top hydrocarbon-producing jurisdictions.
Their research suggests hydraulic fracturing and saltwater disposal has limited impact on seismic events. They also discovered that human-induced seismicity is less likely in areas that have fewer natural earthquakes.
“What we need to know first is where seismicity is changing as it relates to hydraulic fracturing or saltwater disposal,” Van Der Baan said in a July 26, 2017 press release posted by the U of A.
“The next question is, why is it changing in some areas and not others? If we can understand why seismicity changes, then we can start thinking about mitigation strategies.”
Their study, Human-induced seismicity and large-scale hydrocarbon production in the USA and Canada, was published recently in the American Geophysical Union’s scientific journal Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems.
Based on data from North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia, Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan, the U of A team found that only one hydrocarbon production area saw increased regional scale seismic activity—Oklahoma—which they say is likely due to salt-water disposal.
“It’s not as simple as saying: ‘We do a hydraulic fracturing treatment, and therefore we are going to cause felt seismicity.’ It’s actually the opposite. Most of it is perfectly safe,” said Van der Baan, director of the Microseismicity Industry Consortium.
Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, involves high-pressure, underground fluid injection to fracture rock formations and increase production. Fracking has been practiced in the oil and gas industry since the 1950s. Recent advances in fracking technology have led to 8-to-16-fold production increases in some regions.
The U of A study found no connection between hydraulic fracturing and earthquakes, disputing other studies which claim conclusive links.
"Hydraulic fracturing is not going away. The important thing is that we need to find the balance between the economic impact and environmental sustainability of any industry," Van der Baan said.
American GDP could also get a $1.89-trillion boost by 2035, says API study.
Natural Gas is an abundant and clean fossil fuel that will likely play a key role in a lower carbon energy future.
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